The Pivot Point: Transition from Access to Architecture
Over the past decade, the focus on digital development in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) has been singular: access. The main measure of success was the penetration rate — how many SIM cards were active, how many homes were passed by fiber, and how many citizens could simply get online.
As we settle into 2026, that narrative has experienced a fundamental shift. We are no longer simply building pipelines; we are shaping the nervous system of a new economic landscape.
Recent data confirms this trend. The mobile economy alone contributed over $350 billion to the MENA region’s GDP in 2024, a figure expected to rise significantly by 2030. However, the nature of that value is shifting. We are witnessing the rapid transformation of traditional telecommunications operators into TechCos: technology conglomerates that no longer just sell minutes and megabytes but offer platform-based ecosystems including cloud, FinTech, cybersecurity, and IoT.
At Salience Consulting, we see this not just as a trend but as an essential certainty. Yet, the path forward varies. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are aiming towards a post-connectivity era marked by AI sovereignty and 10Gbps societies, while important African markets address the complicated, capital-heavy middle mile to bridge the ongoing digital divide. We continually evaluate the dual realities of broadband’s role in the region, supported by data from 2024 and 2025, and outline the practical commercial and regulatory frameworks needed to sustain this progress.
The Middle East: The Race for Sovereignty and Speed
In the GCC, the digital divide has nearly vanished. The UAE leads globally with 99.3% Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) penetration, and Saudi Arabia is actively working on its 10Gbps Society initiative as part of Vision 2030. The challenge now is no longer about connecting more people online; it’s about network capacity and data management.
The AI-Driven Data Center Boom
The most notable development in the past two years has been the surge in data centre capacity. We forecast regional capacity to triple from 1GW in 2025 to over 3.3 GW by 2030. This is not just organic growth; it is a strategic move by governments to establish Data Sovereignty.
Nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are treating data as a natural resource, much like oil. By localising hyperscale data centres, such as the significant investments from Khazna in the UAE and Project Transcendence in Saudi Arabia, they are ensuring that the economic value of AI processing stays within their borders.
However, this introduces a new engineering challenge. As our CEO Ivan Skenderoski has noted, “we are witnessing a return to data asymmetry.” For years, users downloaded much more than they uploaded. But with Generative AI, a simple text query (upload) can trigger a massive, gigabit-level processing event in a data center, followed by a complex media stream (download). The sheer volume of this traffic requires backhaul infrastructure far more robust than that needed for Netflix or YouTube.
Redefining the TechCo Model
The telecom operators in the region, including e&, stc, Ooredoo, and Zain, are increasingly transforming into investment holding companies for digital assets. The trend of spinning off passive assets, such as towers, to free up capital for active assets, like AI, cloud, and software, is accelerating. We have seen the successful realisation of value in tower assets, which helps operators to reduce debt and invest in the high-margin services layer. With 5G connections in the MENA region expected to reach 50 million by the end of 2025, attention is shifting towards 5G Standalone networks that support network slicing. This technology is essential for enterprise clients requiring guaranteed latency for industrial IoT or autonomous logistics—key elements of the region’s economic diversification strategies.
Africa: The Middle Mile and the Affordability Paradox
While the Middle East is focusing on rapid development, Africa is working to achieve scale. The continent remains the last great opportunity for digital expansion, yet the gap in usage continues. Millions of Africans live within the reach of mobile broadband networks but do not utilise them, often because of the cost of devices and data.
National ambitions are high. Kenya’s National Digital Master Plan (2022-2032) aims for 100,000 km of fiber optic cables and 25,000 public Wi-Fi hotspots. Similarly, South Africa’s SA Connect Phase 2 is working towards connecting 5.5 million households and over 30,000 community Wi-Fi hotspots. The project seeks to attain 80% national broadband access by 2030.
However, implementation is where the real test resides. In Nigeria, the National Broadband Plan 2020-2025 aimed for 70% penetration. By late 2024, the country was approaching 50%, hindered by familiar practical challenges: high Right-of-Way (RoW) fees charged by state governments, frequent fiber cuts caused by road and other infrastructure works, and high diesel costs needed to power base stations.
At Salience Consulting, we have long advocated for policy harmonization. We have consistently emphasised that this harmonization is as crucial as capital investment. You cannot develop a national fiber backbone if each municipality imposes a different trench-digging levy.
The Commercial Case for “FibereCos”
Given these capital constraints, the FiberCo model, which involves independent fiber infrastructure companies, becomes essential. We are observing an increase in co-build strategies where competitors share the cost of the passive trench. Wholesale Open Access is the only sustainable solution for rural connectivity. It makes no financial sense for MTN, Airtel, and Vodacom, among others, to each excavate their own trench to a remote village. A single wholesale open-access network reduces CAPEX burdens and encourages competition at the service level, not the infrastructure level. The Mast Services spin-off by Vodacom and similar initiatives by MTN with IHS Towers are not merely financial engineering; they are survival strategies. They unlock the capital needed to extend fiber deeper into the “Capillary” networks, the last mile that directly reaches the consumer’s home or business.
The Salience Perspective: Three Critical Pillars for 2026
Building on our on-the-ground experience advising regulators and operators across the Middle East and Africa, we pinpoint three crucial pillars that will shape the success of the digital agenda over the next 12 to 24 months.
1) Harmonizing Digital Architectures: The Case for a Unified Ecosystem
Digital infrastructure yields the highest returns when it operates at scale. Currently, the region faces a challenge of technical fragmentation: differing spectrum allocations, inconsistent data classification frameworks, and complex cross-border interconnect protocols. These inconsistencies act as artificial barriers, increasing latency and operational costs for digital services.
- In Africa: Expanding the “One Africa Network” Concept: The emphasis is shifting towards technical interoperability to create a seamless digital zone. By harmonizing spectrum release roadmaps and reducing cross-border interconnection friction, operators can enable “roam-like-home” experiences and support cross-border fintech applications. The aim is to establish a unified technical environment where digital trade and data flow as freely as they do within a single national network, reducing the cost of service delivery for end users.
- In the Middle East, to maximize investment in hyperscale data centres, data must move efficiently across borders. We are advocating for the alignment of data sovereignty and privacy standards across GCC markets. A unified approach to data classification would enable cloud providers to deploy multi-country availability zones, significantly reducing latency for enterprise applications and creating a more attractive environment for global tech investment.
2) The Energy-Data Nexus
We cannot discuss broadband in 2026 without addressing power. Data centres are energy vampires. As AI workloads grow, rack density and power demands are soaring. Interestingly, Africa’s energy challenges have driven innovation. We see telcos becoming anchor tenants for renewable energy mini-grids. In places like Morocco, new data centre projects (such as the recent announcements by Iozera and Naver) are explicitly linked to green energy sources. Additionally, there is the strategic imperative. For regulators, granting a licence for a hyperscale data centre must now include a “Power Impact Assessment.” You cannot connect a 100MW facility to a fragile national grid without a dedicated power plan.
3) The Resilience Factor: Redundancy is Not Optional
The geopolitical instability in the Red Sea has highlighted the fragility of the world’s most critical digital artery. With cables running through the “choke points” of Egypt and Yemen, which face security risks, the region needs alternative corridors. We are advising on the development of land routes, such as the Digital Silk Way crossing Central Asia and the Caspian, and on expanded terrestrial fiber across Saudi Arabia (connecting the Gulf to the Red Sea/Jordan) to bypass maritime bottlenecks. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites such as Starlink are no longer just for rural areas; they are becoming a critical redundancy layer for enterprise and government continuity during fiber cuts.
The Era of Implementation
The “vision” phase for the Middle East and Africa is largely complete. We have the master plans, Saudi Vision 2030, Smart Rwanda, Digital Egypt, and Kenya’s Digital Master Plan.
The focus for 2026 is purely implementation.
- For Governments, this means streamlining Right-of-Way permitting and harmonizing data laws.
- For Investors, this means looking beyond the “easy” tower assets and funding the complex fiber backhaul and green energy solutions.
- For Operators, this means completing the psychological and operational shift from “Telco” to “TechCo.”
Broadband is no longer a utility; it is the nervous system of the region’s economic future. As the narrative shifts from simple penetration rates to data sovereignty and AI capacity, the stakes have risen to over $620 billion. The nations that treat digital infrastructure with the strategic nuance of a trade corridor—solving for the critical ‘energy-data’ nexus and regional integration—will do more than connect their citizens; they will secure their place as economic powerhouses in the 2030s.
At Salience Consulting, we remain committed to helping our clients navigate this transition, moving from the slide deck to the trench, and from strategy to sustainable, connected reality.
Author
Ammar Hamadien
Principal Consultant and Head of Strategic Partnerships